COVID 19 update, March 2020.

The TDVT Hypothesis

For a general discussion of the seasonality of respiratory viruses, written for the layperson, please see

Every winter, colds and flu increase

For detailed scientific information about the seasonality of respiratory viruses, including discussion of the trade-off model, viral dormancy and much else, see my 2016 paper:

Shaw Stewart, PD.  Seasonality and selective trends in viral acute respiratory tract infections. Medical Hypotheses 2016; 86 104–119.

For a discussion of the strange timing and duration of influenza epidemics, please see

The strange arrivals – and departures – of influenza epidemics in the UK, 1946-1974

Applications to Covid-19

For information about the probable seasonality of Covid-19, and whether we can expect it to become rarer in the summer, or reappear in the fall, please see

Predicting the seasonality of Covid-19

For comments about the epidemiology of Covid and other respiratory illnesses, please see

Epidemiology of respiratory illness

For discussion of how the trade-off model can be applied to the Covid epidemic see

Covid 19 and the trade-off model

For a simple model of the transmission of viruses such as CoV-2, please see

A simple model of CoV-2 transmission

For comments about how quickly we can expect viruses to adapt to new environments, please see

Adaptability or respiratory viruses

For more detailed scientific points about CoV-2, see

Technical notes on CoV-2 for scientists

For practical tips on avoiding respiratory illness see

Suggestions for avoiding colds and flu – and Covid-19

Author: PatrickSStewart

I’ve been helping structural biologists for 30 years to crystallize their proteins and I’m one of the two founders and Directors of Douglas Instruments Ltd, a small UK company that manufactures automatic systems for protein crystallization. I worked with Professor David Blow in the 1990s, and have published 15 papers about protein crystallization that have together been cited over 950 times. A few years ago I began to think about respiratory viruses when a friend bet me that I couldn’t find biochemical evidence that chilling could trigger vARIs. I started to write a short note, but everything fell into place so neatly that I ended up writing an article in Medical Hypotheses, and writing this blog.

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